469 Reasons To Follow Congressional Elections

By: Aaron Richards, WIPP Government Relations Intern

Amid a captivating Presidential primary season – with a cast of characters as diverse as ever – it has been easy to forget the 469 other federal elections happening this November. Overlooking some of these critical races is a mistake for advocates looking to change policy under the next Administration. After all, it is Congress – and not the President – that holds the “power of the purse” and the ability to advance or block any White House agenda.

The stakes for Congressional elections are enormous. With every House seat and a third of the Senate up for reelection, Republican and Democratic lawmakers have dreams of controlling the 115^th Congress.

We know the next Congress will look different than this one. Three incumbents have already lost in their primary elections including Virginia Rep. Randy Forbes.  The loss of the 7-term Congressman from Newport News, VA is notable. His tenure as chair of the House subcommittee overseeing the Navy is considered a key reason the region received numerous Navy contracts. The impact of his removal could be significant for federal contractors in his District. Look out for other upcoming primary elections on June 28th in New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Utah.

On a larger scale, these elections may change control of the House or Senate. Historically, Congressional elections during a Presidential election year are likely to have a higher voter turnout, which has recently benefitted Democrats – who control neither chamber. In the Senate, where Democrats currently hold 44 of the 100 seats, only 10 Democrats are up for reelection. Republicans, however, have a steeper climb to maintain their current Senators. Of their 54 seats, 24 face Democratic challengers in November.

Democrats are trying to pick up at least 5 seats to regain control of the Senate. Strategists are targeting Republican incumbents in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as well as an open Republican seat in Florida (though at time of writing rumors swirl about Senator Rubio reconsidering running).

Given the large majority of seats the GOP has in the House, most experts think Republicans have a strong chance of maintaining control. Just to be safe, Republicans have intensified fundraising to help defend that majority. Finally, Republicans have historically held most seats up for reelection in the House.

With the final slate of primaries wrapping up, the field is almost set for the nearly 500 elections that will make up the federal government in 2017. One race in particular – between the nation’s first female candidate (of a major party) and an outspoken business leader – has dominated the news cycle. But for WIPP, as advocates hoping to shape policy, the Congressional elections warrant as much attention. We rarely (in fact never) make lofty predictions about the outcome – and with 5 months, hundreds of debates, thousands of commercials, millions of dollars, and any number of other unpredictable events that could change the calculus before November, there is no reason to start now.